Real Gambling Affiliate Cases Projected onto Telegram Ads: 6 Funnels from Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, the UK and Italy (2026)

Cases are the currency of the affiliate world: a screenshot with spend, FTDs and ROI, posted by an ad network or a partner program. Most newcomers read the ROI and stop. This lesson reads the whole funnel, then asks the question that decides your money: what would the same funnel cost on Telegram Ads?

This is lesson 7 of our free course. You have the ROI math from lesson 6; now you test it on six public cases. We picked cases with published numbers that we re-opened on 22 October 2026, from markets where these verticals run under a licence: Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, the UK and Italy. All six were published by ad networks, partner programs and trade media. None of them is an Adsly client; our part is the Telegram Ads prices measured in Adsly Pro Panel.

Six cases, one answer

• Official Telegram Ads, Nigeria: $530 bought 132 first deposits, about $4 each, and two of eight campaigns carried the result.
• Brazil, iGaming PWA: on our €0.136 Brazil click the funnel works out to €34.29 per FTD; €5,000 of ad budget buys about 146 FTDs.
• Brazil, iGaming before the World Cup: €55.09 per FTD, about 91 FTDs for €5,000.
• Mexico, casino on Meta: $22.56 per FTD against a payout of about $31.55; at €0.266 per Telegram click, one click in 106 must deposit to break even.
• UK, LeoVegas: the “Telegram ads” were banners inside mini apps; one click in 1,519 registered.
• Italy, trading platform on push: $121.88 per deposit; matching it on Telegram takes one deposit per 409 clicks.

How to read a case: click, registration, FTD, payout, ROI

Every gambling case is the same chain: an ad, a click, a registration at the casino or broker, a first deposit. The partner program pays you for that deposit. Each step loses people; the share that survives a step is its conversion rate.

Term	What it means
Click	A tap on the ad
Registration (reg)	An account created at the operator; click→reg is called CR1
FTD	First-time deposit, the first real-money deposit; reg→FTD is CR2
Payout	What the program pays per FTD (CPA) or as a share of player revenue (RevShare), see lesson 1
Cost per FTD	Spend ÷ FTDs: the number to compare between sources
ROI	(revenue − spend) ÷ spend

A worked example from the Mexico case below. Spend $536,393.59, 23,774 FTDs: $22.56 per FTD. The case says “Team profit: $749 998 (of which $213 604 was net profit)”. The $749,998 is the gross payout, $31.55 per FTD; profit is $213,604; ROI is 213,604 ÷ 536,394 = 39.8%, the published +40%. First habit of a buyer: when a case says “profit”, check whether spend has been subtracted.

How we put a case on Telegram Ads

We keep what belongs to the offer and replace what belongs to the traffic.

• Kept from the case: click→registration, registration→FTD and the payout, as published.
• Replaced: the price of a click, by our measured Telegram Ads average for that country or funnel.
• Cost per FTD = cost per click ÷ click→FTD. FTDs for a budget = budget ÷ cost per FTD.
• No clicks in the case? We turn it around: what share of Telegram clicks must deposit to match the case.
• Currencies. USD figures go onto the euro scale at EUR/USD 1.1205, the rate on the latest Adsly Euro-account order (22 October 2026). TON prices stay in TON.

Two limits. Telegram reports channel joins and bot starts, not deposits, so every deposit rate here comes from the cases. And push, onclick, popunder and mini-app banner clicks are low-intent, so their rates are a floor for a deliberate tap on a Telegram ad. Each projection is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a promise.

The Telegram Ads prices we used

Adsly Pro Panel, 22 October 2026. Euro rows qualify with at least 3 accounts and 250,000 impressions; CTR and click prices leave out campaigns with more clicks than views or a CTR above 25%; currencies are never mixed.

Our row	Campaigns	Accounts	Impressions	CTR	Price
Euro accounts, all niches, Brazil	246	6	4,687,290	1.64%	€0.136 per click
Euro accounts, all niches, ads to a website	51,902	41	78,706,714	0.69%	€0.266 per click
Euro accounts, forex, ads to a channel	111	12	614,776	1.75%	€0.543 per channel join
TON-currency accounts, gambling, Nigeria, ads to a bot	48	3	621,492	1.76%	0.014 TON per click, 0.043 TON per bot start

Gambling on Euro accounts alone is still below the size bar (178,651 impressions), so a country’s all-niche price stands in for it. Brazil’s is a niche mix from 6 accounts, not a gambling price.

Casino: Nigeria on official Telegram Ads, $4 per first deposit

What was published. Artem Prokofiev, owner of GP.Solution and the Valor casino with a Telegram version, presented it at G GATE WAVES; G GATE MEDIA wrote it up on 18 November 2024. Eight Telegram Ads campaigns on Nigeria, 25 August to 6 September (the year is not printed): spend $530, 132 first deposits, $4 per FD, “two of them showed a good result”. The method: a separate link for each campaign and one target channel per campaign, so each link tells its own story.

The same funnel on Telegram Ads. This case already is Telegram Ads: the only public gambling case we found that buys official Telegram Ads and publishes spend and first deposits. Our Nigeria gambling row, in TON: CTR 1.76%, 0.014 TON per click, 0.043 TON per bot start, and one click in three (32.5%) became a bot start. At the case’s own $4.02 (€3.58) per FD, €5,000 of ad budget would mean about 1,395 first deposits, but that is 10.6 times the case’s spend, and an average price does not hold at a multiple of the volume it was measured on.

Casino: Mexico on Meta and a PWA, $22.56 per FTD

What was published. A PIN-UP Partners case, an NDA team, 1 June to 31 August 2025, published on AffPapa on 3 November 2025 and on Affpaying: spend $536,393.59, 23,774 FTDs, “Team profit: $749 998 (of which $213 604 was net profit)”, ROI +40%, CPA at an individual rate. The first month broke even. Between 6 and 11 p.m. local time, ROI grew by about 8% and FTDs per thousand clicks by nearly 10%.

The same funnel on Telegram Ads. No clicks were published and no Mexico row passes our size rule, so we turn it around. The payout is about $31.55 (€28.15) per FTD. €5,000 of ad budget needs 178 FTDs to come back, 248 to match the case’s cost. At €0.266 per website click, €5,000 buys about 18,800 clicks: one click in 106 must deposit to break even, one in 76 to match the case. The Brazil funnels below deposited one in 252 and one in 405 on low-intent clicks. A payout this size needs a funnel that converts far better than those floors, or a better-paying offer, which is the question of lesson 2.

Casino: UK, LeoVegas on “Telegram ads” that were mini-app banners

What was published. RichAds case page and RU blog version (Victoria Hubkina, 1 August 2025): a LeoVegas offer for the UK, 27 February to 23 March 2025 (the blog says from 10 February), 2.8 million impressions, 196,000 clicks, 129 registrations, spend $1,800, $14 per registration, CTR 7%, final CPC $0.01. RichAds describes the format as ads in Telegram Mini Apps that look like in-page push, appear mostly in tap-to-earn games and clickers, and “have no ad label like official Telegram ads”. No deposits were published.

The same funnel on Telegram Ads. One click in 1,519 registered. That rate comes from taps inside clicker games, so we do not port it click for click. Turned around: to match $13.95 (€12.45) per registration at €0.266 per click, one click in 47 must register. The Brazil funnels below registered one in 25 and one in 32. The difference between the two products is in our Mini App ads vs official Telegram Ads guide.

iGaming: Brazil before the World Cup, 750 deposits

What was published. PropellerAds, Andreea Axinte, 19 May 2026: a media buyer working with “a large licensed direct advertiser in the iGaming vertical”, Brazil, January to April 2026, Direct Click format, test budget $1,000. Results: 10,000,245 impressions, 303,818 clicks, CTR 3.04%, 12,003 registrations, 750 deposits; the page states CR1 4.04% and CR2 7.44%, while 750 ÷ 12,003 gives 6.25%. We use the counts. No spend was published.

The same funnel on Telegram Ads. Click→reg 3.95%, reg→FTD 6.25%, click→FTD 0.247%, one deposit per 405 clicks. At €0.136 per Brazil click: €3.44 per registration, €55.09 per FTD. €5,000 of ad budget buys about 36,800 clicks, 1,450 registrations and 91 FTDs. €25,000 gives about 454 FTDs, beyond measured volume: our Brazil row holds 4.7 million impressions, €25,000 needs about 11.3 million. Popunder clicks are low-intent, so read these as a floor.

iGaming PWA and mini apps: Brazil, 63,069 deposits in five months

What was published. PropellerAds, Olya Mikheeva, 19 June 2026: “a licensed gaming offer”, Brazil, Android, 1 January to 31 May 2026, formats Onclick, In-Page Push, Telegram mini-app ads and Interactive Ads, 106 campaigns, test budget $5,000. Total spend $550,951; 3.27 billion impressions; 15.9 million clicks; 1,016,050 installs; 495,520 registrations; 63,069 deposits; about $0.54 per install and $8.74 per deposit; 48.8% install→reg; 12.7% reg→deposit. The “Telegram — CPA” campaign alone spent $94,000.

The same funnel on Telegram Ads. Click→reg 3.12%, click→FTD 0.397%, one deposit per 252 clicks. At €0.136 per click: €4.36 per registration, €34.29 per FTD. €5,000 of ad budget buys about 36,800 clicks, 1,150 registrations and 146 FTDs, about 2.3 million impressions, inside our Brazil row. €25,000 gives about 729 FTDs, beyond measured volume. The case paid $8.74 (€7.80) per deposit because its clicks cost $0.035; to match that on a €0.136 click, one click in 57 must deposit. Note the start: a $5,000 test budget, the same size as our €5,000 full-launch ad budget.

Forex and trading platforms: Italy on push, $121.88 per deposit

What was published. RichAds case page and RU blog version (Dmitry Makarov, 18 June 2025): a solo marketer, a trading-platform offer, Italy, 26 days of push ads. Spend $3,900, 196 million impressions, 92,000 clicks, CPC $0.042, 87 registrations (the text says 86), 32 deposits, “$45.4 per reg / $121.87 per dep”.

The same funnel on Telegram Ads. Click→reg 0.093%, reg→FTD 37.2%, click→FTD 0.035%, one deposit per 2,875 clicks. On a €0.266 Telegram click these push rates give €284.56 per registration and €764.75 per FTD, and €500 of ad budget, about 1,880 clicks, would not reach one deposit. That is the floor of push traffic, not a Telegram rate. Turned around: to match $121.88 (€108.77) per deposit, one click in 409 must deposit. If your trading funnel runs through a Telegram channel, our Euro forex-to-channel average was €0.543 per join, so €500 buys about 920 joins; the case gives no join→deposit rate, so we stop there.

All six cases side by side

Case	Market, vertical	Published	Case cost per FTD	Telegram Ads arithmetic	What the ad budget buys
Valor, G GATE MEDIA, 2024	Nigeria, casino	$530 → 132 FD	$4.02	Official Telegram Ads itself; our row 0.043 TON per bot start	€5,000 at the case’s price ≈ 1,395 FD, 10.6× its spend
PIN-UP Partners, 2025	Mexico, casino	$536,394 → 23,774 FTD	$22.56	Break-even: 1 deposit per 106 clicks at €0.266	€5,000 ≈ 18,800 clicks, 178 FTD to break even
LeoVegas, RichAds, 2025	UK, casino	$1,800 → 129 regs	$13.95 per reg	Match: 1 reg per 47 clicks at €0.266	no deposits published
PropellerAds, 2026	Brazil, iGaming	303,818 clicks → 750 dep	spend not published	€55.09 per FTD at €0.136	€5,000 ≈ 91 FTD
PropellerAds, 2026	Brazil, iGaming PWA	$550,951 → 63,069 dep	$8.74	€34.29 per FTD at €0.136	€5,000 ≈ 146 FTD
RichAds, 2025	Italy, trading	$3,900 → 32 dep	$121.88	€764.75 per FTD at push rates; match: 1 per 409 clicks	€500 ≈ 1,880 clicks

What these cases teach

1. Compare cost per FTD, never cost per click. The UK clicks cost $0.0092 and one in 1,519 registered; the Italy clicks cost $0.042 and one in 2,875 deposited. Cheap clicks were the expensive part.
2. Check what “Telegram” means in a case. In the UK and Brazil PWA cases it was an ad network’s format inside Telegram Mini Apps, and the UK case itself notes those ads carry no label like official Telegram ads. Only the Nigeria case bought official Telegram Ads.
3. Most campaigns of a test lose. Two of eight carried Nigeria; Mexico’s first month broke even. Budget the test as part of the cost, as in lesson 6.
4. Big results start from test budgets: $5,000 in the Brazil PWA case, $1,000 in the World Cup case.
5. The payout sets the bar. At about $31.55 per FTD, Mexico needs one deposit per 106 clicks on Telegram; a higher payout or a tighter funnel lowers the bar.
6. Track every campaign separately. Nigeria ran one link and one channel per campaign. Pro Panel macros such as {country} and {targeting} write the same split into your links.
7. Re-check every number: CR2 7.44% against 6.25% from the counts, 86 or 87 registrations, “team profit” that is a gross payout.

Launch your own case through Adsly

A case becomes yours when your own tracker counts the deposits. Adsly, the official Telegram Ads partner, runs two gambling formats. The minimum to launch ads in the gambling niche is €5,000 + 30% commission. If your budget is from €25,000, we open official gambling accounts with a 25% commission.

• Full launch, the main gambling service, from €5,000 + 30% commission. A full launch on our infrastructure: our team writes the ad texts without the brand or bonus amounts so they pass Telegram moderation, and a dedicated manager runs the whole project — all the traffic, tracking set up end to end, the analytics and daily optimisation; one tap brings the player into your bot, Mini App or site.
• Official gambling account, from €25,000 + 25% commission. The route Telegram approves for your project, with your brand, bonuses and RTP in the ad as written.

Telegram’s public Ad Policies prohibit gambling ads (5.6), which is why gambling runs through these two formats. Forex and other regular niches: €500 ad budget + 30% commission. Binary options: €5,000 + 30% commission. Every format gives access in ads.telegram.org and in Adsly Pro Panel, opens in 48 hours, takes any crypto, no KYC.

Ready to build your own case? Open your account on /cabinet/ or write to @adsly_pro with your offer, geo and budget.

FAQ

Are these Adsly clients’ results?

No. All six are third-party public cases. Our part is the Telegram Ads prices measured in Adsly Pro Panel and the arithmetic.

Why does Telegram sometimes come out more expensive per FTD than the case?

Because the case’s conversion rates come from its own clicks. Push, popunder and mini-app banner clicks are cheap and low-intent, so their rates are a floor for a deliberate Telegram tap. Your own tracker settles it after the first campaigns.

Can I expect the same numbers?

No promise. The offer, geo, creatives and payout change every line. Use the cases as a bar: what share of clicks must deposit for your payout to pay back the ad budget.

Why don’t you show deposit rates from your own data?

Telegram Ads reports channel joins and bot starts. Deposits live in your partner program’s dashboard and your postbacks, so every deposit rate in this lesson comes from the cases.

Which case is closest to Telegram Ads?

Nigeria: official Telegram Ads, campaigns targeted at channels, $530 for 132 first deposits. It is small, 13 days and two winning campaigns, so treat it as a direction, not a price.

Can I run Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, the UK and Italy from one account?

Yes. Every Euro account from Adsly is World: every available country except Russia and Ukraine, chosen per campaign. Russia and Ukraine open as separate accounts at the same price.

How much do I need to start?

Gambling: from €5,000 + 30% commission on the full launch, from €25,000 + 25% commission on the official gambling account. Forex: €500 ad budget + 30% commission. Binary options: €5,000 + 30% commission.

Sources

• PropellerAds: iGaming PWA Funnel in Brazil, 1M+ Installs and 63K Deposits in 5 Months, 19 June 2026.
• PropellerAds: Get Ready for the 2026 World Cup, Brazil iGaming Case Study, 19 May 2026.
• G GATE MEDIA: TG Ads, Adsgram, channels and bots for Telegram casinos, 18 November 2024 (Nigeria case, in Russian).
• AffPapa: Profitable Mexico campaign with PIN-UP Partners, 3 November 2025; same text on Affpaying.
• RichAds: Telegram ads on UK iGaming offers and RU blog version, 1 August 2025.
• RichAds: Push ads case, trading offer in Italy and RU blog version, 18 June 2025.
• Telegram Ad Policies: gambling (5.6).
• Adsly Pro Panel measurements, 22 October 2026: the four rows in the table above with their campaigns, accounts and impressions; EUR/USD 1.1205 from the latest Adsly Euro-account order.

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